Since Ethiopia claimed it shot down a plane flight to Tigray, only the Tigray administration countered the claim.
We analysed the information at four levels:
- Rationale and motive
- Media silence
- level of facts and details
- Action after incident
Let see one by one starting with motives and rationale.
The rationale and motive for Ethiopian government, people apparently suspect is, to delegitimise the Tigray authorities and justify its operations in the face of the international community. This is not unreasonable since it happened when war resumed.
Yet, temporal coincidence explains nothing by itself. Above all, as this involves huge consequences more than the aim it wants to accomplish.
The effects on the Ethiopian government and all these institutions, such as civil aviation and airforce, which the public sees them with high esteem, lose their credibility, is something the institutions can’t afford to trade with.
What bigger justification could justify such grave loss of trust when they report real future incidents. This time will be over and times change and the fact is trust is forever.
Abiy reported earlier at a youth meeting, Ethiopia have detected hidden flights to Tigray before the incident. It was popular rumour in Ethiopian media flights were happening to Tigray earlier this year, some suspected to transport TPLF authorities to negotiation.
Abiy’s claim seems to confirm the rumour circulating before this particular incident. Many reports in this war exploited the fact that credibility is an issue for the Ethiopian government. Thus, the government is aware unfounded accusation like this leaves further huge dent, thus, it’s something they would want to avoid under normal circumstances.
Let’s see the facts. The Ethiopian airforce chief came up on state television yesterday with further details. Though the details are about the facts rather than the facts themselves, he presented the details in a way that provides opportunity for precise verification.
The airforce chief provided details of geographic coordinates, entry points and hours and minutes. He also received confirmation from the civil aviation before the target was strike with SU-27 flankers.
Ethiopia bought these attack aircrafts during Ethiopia Eritrean war and shot down four Mig 21 losing none. An ordinary plane is obviously a toy to these sky hunters.
This is unprecedented level of details given satellites somewhere will certainly capture images at that hour in that location will become public at some point and can be verified accordingly. The civil aviation people might speak in the future. So, the details are close to precise evidence.
The airforce chief has also mentioned the military intelligence has verified with ground truth and received eyewitness testimonies. Since it’s a conflict zone, information could be difficult to access for ordinary people other than intelligence but testimonies will definitely be available in the future.
Strangely, the chief commander is confident to say that those countries who thought we are weak have known our capabilities. Given Satellite technology, it’s easier for defense establishments in other countries to detect the event since there’s light and fire involved. Especially, rich countries operate high resolution satellites to detect small fires let alone such an aircraft blown in the air.
Thus, he is right telling us indirectly it’s a matter known in the US and European army and intelligence community. It is fair to assume it could be something they have known and decided not to publicise for the common good.
This brings us to the third issue related with media. That common understanding could be the reason for the media silence. Given Ethiopia cooperates with many countries, defense correspondents could verify the claim from sources in partner countries. Yet, unlike civilian institutions, security establishments work with strict protocols.
The only further detail published is on Twitter pages affiliated with the Ethiopian government that usually transmit accurate information on Egypt and the Ethiopian Renaissance dam.
The pages claimed the plane is Antonov 26 and it was detected by radar in Sudan Wad Muzammil, bordering Bereket, and it’s shot down at 21:30 by air to air capability near Adi Goshu in Tigray.
They also stated the Ethiopian civil aviation has installed $10 million surveillance system to boost security for its airspace. The claim matches the details the airforce chief made about the involvement of Ethiopian civil aviation to confirm the strange flight before it’s blown up.
The last point is, Ethiopian government is unlikely to lodge such grave accusations that amounts to foreign invasion without evidence, merely to justify a minor operation that has truth in its justification.
Yet, one wonders, if it happened, this should guarantee at minimum severing diplomatic ties with countries involved, something we haven’t seen so far.
For a huge incident like this and the availability of technology, further evidences are likely to come up pro or against. So far, Ethiopia has provided details that involve wide array of civilians and civilian institutions.
This all eventually comes down to, Ethiopian institutions that otherwise should be perceived with high esteem can’t sustain the credibility damage in the eyes of the public, when real incidents arise in the future, for a small stunt in front of international community.
These are the evidences so far. But, the question will not stop here since if true, the wider public keeps asking what actions are taken against the country that violated our territory to support insurgents? If not, the public will keep asking how can we take our institutions for their words in the future?
Frontier PR Agency 